Jalal Talabani Iraq’s Last Kurdish President

[Anthea]

Rudaw

After Jalal Talabani, it is unlikely that another Kurd will ever be given Iraq’s presidency. As it is, Talabani became president because of who he was, not because the post was being granted to the Kurds.

Now that a post-Talabani era and his replacement are being seriously debated, the situation in the wider region is very different from when he was elected for a second term in 2010. With the Americans still involved in Iraq, his appointment was made even easier.

But because times have changed, I find it unlikely that a Kurd will ever again sit as Iraq’s president.

It is said that Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani still insists that the presidency should go to the Kurds. But how is that to happen? It was difficult to get the post even when all the Shias were Kurdish allies.

Also, from Kurdistan’s perspective, the post has lost its strategic importance. Its only importance for Kurdistan was that it had maintained a balance between two towering leaders, Barzani and Talabani.

Even if Barzani insists that the post go to a Kurd, it is unlikely that the current situation in Iraq and the region would allow that to happen. Iraq is going through a crisis that has never been as serious. There is no solution in sight, because the parties involved are not interested in one. Iraq’s domestic parties as well as those in the region are interested in Iraq’s disintegration, not its integrity.

Iran knows that in a united Iraq the Sunnis will never hold power again. But in the meantime, it is deeply worried about the rise of the Sunnis in the region. That is why Iranian leaders have advised Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to draw the Sunnis to his side, whether by offering privileges to Jordan or by buying Iraq’s local Sunni leaders.

Iran knows how eager the Sunnis are to get the post of president. It was notable how eagerly parliament speaker Osama Nujeifi flew back from India as soon as he heard the news of Talabani’s stroke. He wanted to sit in his post right away.

Both Maliki and Iran will leave Talabani’s empty post for a violent debate between the Kurds and the Sunnis. But I believe that if the situation continues as now, Iraq will not have time for any more discussion about who will occupy the president’s seat. Iraq stayed together only through Talabani’s hard work and his preoccupation with it. After him, the Kurds’ memory and link to Baghdad will begin to fade.

In addition, Turkey no longer believes in the idea of a united Iraq. It prefers a fragmented Iraq to a Shia Iraq. Ankara also understands that a Sunni return to power in Iraq is impossible unless through a military coup, which is highly unlikely in these circumstances.

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