Fatih Cekirge: The bombs to PKK, recognition to Barzani

[Vladimir]

Fatih Cekirge: The bombs to PKK, recognition to Barzani
I am summarizing a very powerful scenario:

- There is a great deal of oil in northern Iraq. Mosul and Kirkuk…

- The United States told Turkey to stay away from the region; but Turkey insisted. In response, the U.S. gave the go nod to the president of the autonomous Kurdish administration of northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani; they loosened his leash. The PKK got support and the attacks against Turkey increased. Barzani became arrogant.

Right about that time the U.S. softened its stance towards Turkey and allowed Turkey to organize strikes against the PKK.

According to this scenario the agreement appears to be:

- Turkey will strike PKK camps in northern Iraq. Barzani will cut his logistic support to the PKK and also end the complaisance policy holds toward it. In response, Turkey will recognize Barzani, and naturally, the regional Kurdish administration. It will establish relations with the regional administration and trade will begin.

Then what will happen to Mosul and Kirkuk?

Turkey voiced its concerns over a Kurdish state that has grown powerful through oil. They are working on a formula that removes these concerns.

Turkey first needs to sit at the table with the Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Barzani before such a formula can be realized.

Turkey struck the PKK. Talabani promised Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) that he would support the DTP should the PKK lays down its arms.

Barzani is preparing to sit at the table.

Therefore, we will recognize Barzani, in return for permission to bomb the PKK. Our voice on Mosul and Kirkuk is beginning to decline. The red-line is starting to blur and we are beginning to grey.

That is what happened. It is the beginning of a new era.
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/turk ... 1&sz=36542

Good or not?

[Diri]

Good or not?

Neither... And both...


But truly interesting...

[Vladimir]

Why neither and both? Wouldn't a reconciliation between Turkey and KRG be good?

[matin123]

I don't think this is such a good thing. By allowing Turkey to attack PKK bases in South Kurdistan in exchange for recognition of Iraqi Kurdistan, there is two problems...

1. More innocent Kurds will be killed. (Which have nothing to do with PKK)

2. Kurds from North Kurdistan (Turkish occupied Kurdistan) will feel neglected by Barzani. This may lead to seperation of Kurds in Turkey and Kurds in Iraq.

[Diri]

I don't think this is such a good thing. By allowing Turkey to attack PKK bases in South Kurdistan in exchange for recognition of Iraqi Kurdistan, there is two problems...

1. More innocent Kurds will be killed. (Which have nothing to do with PKK)

2. Kurds from North Kurdistan (Turkish occupied Kurdistan) will feel neglected by Barzani. This may lead to seperation of Kurds in Turkey and Kurds in Iraq.

And

3. To give Turkey so MUCH for so LITTLE (recognition by Turkey shouldn't matter as long as the Iraq, UN, US and EU recognize it) - is absurd...

and

4. Turkey won't stop there - and soon, KRG will be Turkey's hoe...

So then what? Then they demand that Kerkûk becomes a Turkmen-ruled city in exchange for allowing the borders to be open?


Come on... The Kurds have always had this problem: we always try to appease those who oppose us...

[matin123]

ey walla kak sohrab. i was also thinking the same thing. also, economically, from what i hear, south kurdistan's is doing very well. they don't need turkey for trade. they don't need turkey's recognition. eventually, iraqi kurdistan will have a better chance of getting into the EU than turkey lol

[Vladimir]

From who you heard they are doing well economically? How you want to export oil? How you want to become independent? You need an alliance/partnership with one of the surrounding countries. It's landlocked remember. And most of the companies doing business in the KRG region are or Kurds from Turkey or Turkish companies. For instance one of the big oil partners is Turkish.

And there is already a separation between Kurds from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey - borders and regional parties (KDP-I, KDP, PUK, PKK, etc) . Kurds from Turkey feel different from Kurds from Iraq anyway. They feel superior. Not all Kurds in Turkey are PKK-supporters and the ones that are don't like Barzani/KDP. PKK-media is also against KDP/PUK. A result of the civil war when PKK tried to take over the Kurdish region of Iraq with violence. There are good family connections in the border regions like Colemerg, etc.

And it's impossible that Kerkuk becomes a Turkmen-ruled city. There are not enough Turkmen and Shiite Turkmen vote for Shiite parties. The writer from Hurriyet clearly states that the Turkish voice on Mosul and Kirkuk will decline: That means they will join the KRG region in turn for selling out PKK. But it doesn't mean independence for the Iraqi Kurds, but probable strengthening the KRG region.

Don't forget that KRG is becoming 'a hoe' because they are dependent on food imports and other goods and don't produce anything.

[matin123]

I heard on CNN that compared to the rest of the country, Iraqi Kurdistan is booming economically. Also, Iraqi Kurdistan is MUCH MUCH safer than the rest of Iraq. Because of this, investors from Europe, America, etc. are investing their money in construction projects in Iraqi Kurdistan.

[Vladimir]

Yes, it's safer then the rest of Iraq and there are investors. But it doesn't mean the economy is good.

[talsor]

No , the actual scenario a couple of years ago involved Turkey's demand that Barzani recognize PKK as a terrorist organization , in return for Turkey's recognision to KRG , But he refused

PKK will never die , because Pkk is not just a party , PKK is an idiology , PKK mean being Kurdish in northren Kurdistan , PKK mean Peshmarga , . The 3000 fighters in Kandil mountain killing few turkish soldier here and there does no mean much trust me . Turekey's problem is 30,000,000 PKK that lives in Turkey(occupied kurdistan ) . As long as there is ONE Kurd in Turkey , turkey's problem will contiue . So either Turkey will smarten up or they have commit another genocide which is not doable anymore .

PKK is winning by default .

[Vladimir]

PKK doesn't accept the definition of Peshmerge and not all Kurds vote for PKK-related parties - so PKK is not the Kurdish people, but they do have support of 2 million people who vote. Such a thing is impossible considering tribal chiefs who supported Ankara in the past. DTP won in Diyarbakir, Mus, Igdir, Hakkari and Sirnak. In other southeastern provinces they won about 20%/30%/40% of the vote. DTP controls 54 municipalities. DTP got around 2 million votes from Kurds.

See:
http://secim2007.ntvmsnbc.com/default.aspx
http://www.konrad.org.tr/secim/index.php

[talsor]

PKK doesn't accept the definition of Peshmerge ??????

how so ?

[Vladimir]

Because they want to be different from the "tribal/feudal" KDP/PUK and have the international name guerilla.

[zurderer]

1. More innocent Kurds will be killed. (Which have nothing to do with PKK)


How many died? 100? 200? one wounded?



2. Kurds from North Kurdistan (Turkish occupied Kurdistan) will feel neglected by Barzani. This may lead to seperation of Kurds in Turkey and Kurds in Iraq.

Oh. You should care much about pesmerges, They are treating kurdish drives at north iraq realy bad. They already began to say that When they need us we helped them but They are still treating us bad at north iraq. Mostly bribe.





3. To give Turkey so MUCH for so LITTLE (recognition by Turkey shouldn't matter as long as the Iraq, UN, US and EU recognize it) - is absurd...


So tell me, which of these states have a border with north iraq? UN, US, EU? and which one of them will stay at kurdish region more than Turkey? and which one of them can help kurds against other states? only USA? Oh we know, her decision.



4. Turkey won't stop there - and soon, KRG will be Turkey's hoe...

This is like saying, barzani will not stop at north iraq but try to effect turkey. Most probably you are right but It is give and take thing. Not only give.





i was also thinking the same thing. also, economically, from what i hear, south kurdistan's is doing very well. they don't need turkey for trade. they don't need turkey's recognition. eventually, iraqi kurdistan will have a better chance of getting into the EU than turkey lol


Then where will you north iraq trade? iran, iraq or syria? Becoming better then rest of iraq is not realy such a good thing.

[matin123]

"How many died? 100? 200? one wounded?"

- Even one innocent life lost is too many.


"Then where will you north iraq trade? iran, iraq or syria? Becoming better then rest of iraq is not realy such a good thing."

- Why would trading with Iran, Iraq, or Syira be a priority to Kurds? What does Syria have for example that Kurds would want to trade for? And why would North Kurdistan be restricted to trade only with neigboring countries?