Assad is preparing for an allawite state

[alan131210]

According to few experts that, the Allawites in Syria are preparing to declare their own state on the coastal areas of Mediterranean sea and Lattakia province.

Abdul Halim Khadam, former president Hafez Assad's assistant who has taken refuge in France told the daily newspaper (El Paris) "the allawites are now preparing themselves to declare a state for their own, this is the reason most of the heavy weaponries are been re-allocated to those areas".

An analysis for (Boston College) Frank Salame announced that the massacres that are taking place is to appoint the borders of this allawite state.

Anti Assad groups have announced that Assad has left Damascus and taken refuge in the allawite areas, and most of the allawites are migrating from all over the country to those areas.

http://www.hawlati.co/babetekan/22666

[alan131210]

good news , this way we too can declare a kurdish state or make West Kurdistan annex with SK.

[Kurdistano]

good news , this way we too can declare a kurdish state or make West Kurdistan annex with SK.

You have to love it when the borders of these fake states fall and the Middle East changes step by step. Even if its not a Kurdish state still it makes me exited. Its time that those huge empires ( I cant even call them states) fall and we have similar demographics like in Europe.

[thesunchild]

Too good to be true, but I don't buy it.

[Kurdistano]

Too good to be true, but I don't buy it.

You can buy it. Everything speaks for it. Assad starting to realize that the West will not let him go until he resigns , the Muslim Brotherhood which will for sure seek vengeance for what the Allawites have done to them over the years if they stay part of Syria.

Syria will at least fall into three parts, if not maybe even 4 (+ a Druze one).

[hevalo27]

well, kak alan postet here few days ago an interressting articel about such a scenario.
you should look in independence thread.
i personally think its the once way for the alawites escape a massacre, assad knows that.
the problem is, powers like turkey will try to prevent the state collapse and im not sure wheter USA want that, maybe they have an agreement with turkey about the kurds in syria.

[Kurdistano]

well, kak alan postet here few days ago an interressting articel about such a scenario.
you should look in independence thread.
i personally think its the once way for the alawites escape a massacre, assad knows that.
the problem is, powers like turkey will try to prevent the state collapse and im not sure wheter USA want that, maybe they have an agreement with turkey about the kurds in syria.

If the Leaders of US are not plain stupid it has to be in their interest. Whats better for them than cutting such states into smaller pieces?

Also this would weaken the influence of a few ethnic groups in the Region. Till today it was always Arabs, Iranians, Turks. Now you might get more ethnic Groups playing a role in the Middle East. Like the Alawites, The Kurds, The Baloch and maybe the Druze.

[hevalo27]

If the Leaders of US are not plain stupid it has to be in their interest. Whats better for them than cutting such states into smaller pieces?

normally you are right. but like i wrote, i dont know wheter turkey has an agreement with US to prevent a kurdish splitt.
the alawites will break up from syria definitely, but for kurds im not sure, maybe turkey makes a better deal, a more attractive than a kurdish split.

[Londoner]

Allawites have to declare their own state, otherwise they will be massacred. It is a very good news.

[Kurdistano]

If the Leaders of US are not plain stupid it has to be in their interest. Whats better for them than cutting such states into smaller pieces?

normally you are right. but like i wrote, i dont know wheter turkey has an agreement with US to prevent a kurdish splitt.
the alawites will break up from syria definitely, but for kurds im not sure, maybe turkey makes a better deal, a more attractive than a kurdish split.

You are giving Turkey too much credit for influence. If they had that much influence they would even prevent a Kurdish state in South Kurdistan. West Kurdistan is already in Kurdish control. The People are extremely militarized .So how do they want to prevent a Kurdish state in the east? moving in and interfering in other business? Do you believe Iran or Russia will just watch. its not that easy. Turkey can only try to play influence via agents and spies and arming Syrians to move against us (what they wount dare) but they cant interfere directly.

[Kurdistano]

Allawites have to declare their own state, otherwise they will be massacred. It is a very good news.

I hope Allawites will survive and declare their own state. However I hope they get Assad somehow and torture him to death. A Guy who belongs to a minority himself but has done everything in his power to make the Arabs massacre Kurds and change the demographics.

[Rando]

Not only does this contribute to the "Slice up countries" interest of US,but it also expands its influence in syria itself.
wouldn`t an allawite state make Syria landlocked?
wouldn`t that be in US interest? A small state like the allawite next to a huge (compared to itself) barbarian state make it desperate after allies,and i don`t believe US would miss this opportunity. It could influence allawite state and "control" it,making syria very dependent on US/allawite state for acsess to the sea.
it can`t look north for a route to the sea either without bumping into US,since turkey is also a US "puppet".
and south is jordan and israel,both have good relations with US.
And to the east is iraq (and kurdistan,but we can`t give them accsess to the sea),but when maliki is gone i don`t think iraq will support syria. i heard terrorist groups from syria is entering iraq to kill iraqs. That wont have a good effect on iraq-syria relations. This would make syria dependent on US and therefore become pro-US.
Syria wouldn`t be able to use force against the allawite state,since it is a ally of US. it would be the same as the iraqi invasion of kuwait. US would retaliate with its military.
im not sure how big US influence is in lebanon is nor do i know anything about Syrian-lebenese relatons.
i haven`t been updated on whats happening in syria lately,and the theory above is just what i think would be logical. if anything new have happend in syria or the theory above isn`t possible,please post i reply about what have happend or why that theory isn`t possible.

[alan131210]

Rando they will have access to the sea.

[Kurdistano]

Rando they will have access to the sea.

Thats what thought. I dont believe the Allawites will be able to take all the coast area.

[alan131210]

Rando they will have access to the sea.

Thats what thought. I dont believe the Allawites will be able to take all the coast area.

No their access will be limited to lattikia but still accessible, lucky them.